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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Texas A&M

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:29.0
Current RPI:29
Expected SOS:7
Current SOS:7
Current Record:20-12
Expected Record:20-12
Current Conf Record:9-10
Expected Conf Record:9-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:3-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:5-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC Record:11-2
Expected OOC RPI:6
Expected OOC SOS:11



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1229.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Texas A&M.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10West Virginia (27.0)B12N65-88W100%0.0
11-17UC Santa Barbara (127.0)BWH84-65W100%0.0
11-20Oklahoma St. (88.0)B12N55-72W100%0.0
11-21Penn St. (77.0)B10N87-98W100%0.0
11-24Pepperdine (317.0)WCCH81-65W100%0.0
11-26USC (34.0)P12A59-75W100%0.0
11-30UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACH78-60W100%0.0
12-5Arizona (13.0)P12N67-64L0%0.0
12-9Prairie View A&M (247.0)SWACH73-53W100%0.0
12-13Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH113-66W100%0.0
12-19Northern Kentucky (115.0)HorzH64-58W100%0.0
12-21Buffalo (25.0)MACH89-73W100%0.0
12-30Alabama (42.0)SECA79-57L0%0.0
1-2Florida (46.0)SECH66-83L0%0.0
1-6LSU (95.0)SECH68-69L0%0.0
1-9Kentucky (10.0)SECA74-73L0%0.0
1-13Tennessee (8.0)SECA75-62L0%0.0
1-16Mississippi (141.0)SECH71-69W100%0.0
1-20Missouri (43.0)SECH60-49W100%0.0
1-23LSU (95.0)SECA77-65L0%0.0
1-27Kansas (5.0)B12A79-68L0%0.0
1-30Arkansas (30.0)SECH80-66W100%0.0
2-3South Carolina (90.0)SECH83-60W100%0.0
2-7Auburn (15.0)SECA80-81W100%0.0
2-10Kentucky (10.0)SECH85-74W100%0.0
2-13Missouri (43.0)SECA62-58L0%0.0
2-17Arkansas (30.0)SECA94-75L0%0.0
2-20Mississippi St. (73.0)SECH81-93L0%0.0
2-24Vanderbilt (132.0)SECA81-89W100%0.0
2-28Georgia (79.0)SECA60-61W100%0.0
3-3Alabama (42.0)SECH68-66W100%0.0
3-8Alabama (42.0)SECN70-71L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Texas A&M's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Texas A&M's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Texas A&M.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Texas A&MSEC26.1026.1061.1961.195.845.84
AlabamaSEC5.295.2954.8454.840.510.51
KentuckySEC3.823.8271.8871.881.671.67
ArkansasSEC3.783.7868.7568.751.421.42
MissouriSEC3.723.7262.0762.070.900.90
LSUSEC3.723.7251.7251.720.130.13
GeorgiaSEC2.262.2656.2556.250.280.28
Mississippi St.SEC2.262.2664.5264.520.660.66
TennesseeSEC2.252.2575.0075.001.131.13
AuburnSEC2.252.2580.6580.651.381.38
FloridaSEC2.232.2361.2961.290.500.50
VanderbiltSEC2.212.2138.7138.71-0.50-0.50
MississippiSEC2.192.1938.7138.71-0.49-0.49
South CarolinaSEC2.182.1851.6151.610.070.07
West VirginiaB121.781.7872.7372.730.810.81
Oklahoma St.B121.771.7759.3859.380.330.33
KansasB121.751.7578.7978.791.011.01
ArizonaP121.681.6878.7978.790.970.97
USCP121.661.6669.7069.700.650.65
UC Santa BarbaraBW1.631.6372.4172.410.730.73
PepperdineWCC1.611.6116.6716.67-1.07-1.07
Prairie View A&MSWAC1.591.5946.8846.88-0.10-0.10
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.591.5944.8344.83-0.16-0.16
BuffaloMAC1.561.5678.1278.120.880.88
Northern KentuckyHorz1.561.5671.4371.430.670.67
Penn St.B101.561.5663.6463.640.430.43
Savannah St.MEAC1.561.5644.8344.83-0.16-0.16
OklahomaB120.300.3058.0658.060.050.05
TexasB120.230.2357.5857.580.040.04
Iowa St.B120.210.2141.9441.94-0.03-0.03
BaylorB120.210.2154.8454.840.020.02
Texas TechB120.210.2172.7372.730.100.10
Kansas St.B120.210.2166.6766.670.070.07
UtahP120.190.1963.3363.330.050.05
Long Beach St.BW0.170.1741.9441.94-0.03-0.03
TCUB120.160.1665.6265.620.050.05
North FloridaASun0.150.1536.6736.67-0.04-0.04
MemphisAmer0.150.1561.7661.760.030.03
Alcorn St.SWAC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
UCFAmer0.140.1459.3859.380.030.03
StanfordP120.140.1454.5554.550.010.01
OregonP120.140.1464.7164.710.040.04
MinnesotaB100.140.1446.8846.88-0.01-0.01
UCLAP120.140.1465.6265.620.040.04
Green BayHorz0.130.1333.3333.33-0.04-0.04
East Tennessee St.SC0.130.1371.8871.880.060.06
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.130.1380.0080.000.080.08
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.120.1233.3333.33-0.04-0.04
HoustonAmer0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
BYUWCC0.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Oral RobertsSum0.120.1228.5728.57-0.05-0.05
Arizona St.P120.120.1264.5264.520.030.03
Alabama A&MSWAC0.120.129.689.68-0.09-0.09
ColoradoP120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
Oregon St.P120.110.1150.0050.000.000.00
UC IrvineBW0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Cal PolyBW0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.100.1030.7730.77-0.04-0.04
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.100.1084.8584.850.070.07
Cal St. FullertonBW0.100.1062.0762.070.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.100.1083.3383.330.070.07
Santa ClaraWCC0.100.1034.4834.48-0.03-0.03
CincinnatiAmer0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Utah ValleyWAC0.100.1065.5265.520.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.100.1025.8125.81-0.05-0.05
Miami OHMAC0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
SamfordSC0.100.1026.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.100.1076.6776.670.050.05
Western MichiganMAC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
PittsburghACC0.100.1025.0025.00-0.05-0.05
UT ArlingtonSB0.090.0960.6160.610.020.02
Texas SouthernSWAC0.090.0944.1244.12-0.01-0.01
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
LipscombASun0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
MercerSC0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
PurdueB100.090.0982.3582.350.060.06
CaliforniaP120.090.0925.8125.81-0.04-0.04
TroySB0.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cleveland St.Horz0.080.0832.3532.35-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.080.0851.6151.610.000.00
SeattleWAC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
OaklandHorz0.080.0857.5857.580.010.01
Norfolk St.MEAC0.080.0843.3343.33-0.01-0.01
San DiegoWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
San FranciscoWCC0.080.0853.1253.120.000.00
HawaiiBW0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Morgan St.MEAC0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
GonzagaWCC0.070.0788.2488.240.060.06
Sam Houston St.Slnd0.070.0751.7251.720.000.00
Tennessee MartinOVC0.070.0727.5927.59-0.03-0.03
Jacksonville St.OVC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
MarquetteBE0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
VirginiaACC0.070.0793.9493.940.060.06
Georgia TechACC0.070.0740.6240.62-0.01-0.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
IllinoisB100.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
VermontAE0.070.0778.7978.790.040.04
TempleAmer0.070.0753.1253.120.000.00
Coppin St.MEAC0.070.0715.6215.62-0.05-0.05
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
South Dakota St.Sum0.070.0780.0080.000.040.04
Kent St.MAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.070.0712.5012.50-0.05-0.05
OhioMAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
AkronMAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.070.0771.4371.430.030.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
Louisiana TechCUSA0.070.0748.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.070.0768.7568.750.030.03
NorthwesternB100.070.0745.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Ohio St.B100.070.0775.0075.000.030.03
Rhode IslandA100.070.0778.1278.120.040.04
WashingtonP120.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Chicago St.WAC0.050.053.333.33-0.05-0.05
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
North Carolina CentralMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.050.0526.6726.67-0.02-0.02
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UMKCWAC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
James MadisonCAA0.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Florida A&MMEAC0.050.0524.2424.24-0.03-0.03
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.050.0580.6580.650.030.03
RiceCUSA0.050.0517.2417.24-0.03-0.03
Loyola MarymountWCC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
PacificWCC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
PortlandWCC0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
St. John'sBE0.050.0546.8846.88-0.00-0.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
WagnerNEC0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Michigan St.B100.050.0587.8887.880.040.04
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
ClemsonACC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
DaytonA100.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Illinois St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
Austin PeayOVC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
Georgia St.SB0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Houston BaptistSlnd0.050.0510.7110.71-0.04-0.04
MassachusettsA100.050.0539.3939.39-0.01-0.01
UABCUSA0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
George MasonA100.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Bowling GreenMAC0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SouthernSWAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
Fort WayneSum0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
HarvardIvy0.050.0556.6756.670.010.01
IowaB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
LouisvilleACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
MarylandB100.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Washington St.P120.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.030.0322.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Delaware St.MEAC0.030.036.676.67-0.02-0.02
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
HowardMEAC0.030.0325.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Montana St.BSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
North TexasCUSA0.030.0343.3343.33-0.00-0.00
Sacramento St.BSky0.030.0316.6716.67-0.02-0.02
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
William & MaryCAA0.030.0358.6258.620.000.00
Northern ColoradoBSky0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Southern UtahBSky0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
Weber St.BSky0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
FIUCUSA0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HofstraCAA0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
Incarnate WordSlnd0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.020.0284.3884.380.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
New HampshireAE0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Seton HallBE0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Southern MissCUSA0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.020.0233.3333.33-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.020.0217.8617.86-0.02-0.02
DelawareCAA0.020.0238.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.020.0258.6258.620.000.00
FurmanSC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
High PointBSth0.020.0240.7440.74-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San Diego St.MWC0.020.0267.7467.740.010.01
St. BonaventureA100.020.0278.1278.120.010.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
VillanovaBE0.020.0288.2488.240.020.02
Wake ForestACC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
AmericanPat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
BinghamtonAE0.020.0231.0331.03-0.01-0.01
CampbellBSth0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
FordhamA100.020.0229.0329.03-0.01-0.01
George WashingtonA100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00
IndianaB100.020.0251.6151.610.000.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.020.0213.3313.33-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
RiderMAAC0.020.0270.9770.970.010.01
RutgersB100.020.0242.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00